Markets & Economy

The Economy: March 2019

THE ECONOMY: As of March 2019

Per the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimate, expectations for 1st quarter GDP growth have steadily improved, up to 2.1%. The S&P 500 has moved higher along with the incoming data, up 13.65% year-to-date, and is just a few percentage points away from the all-time high reached last September. Continued positive news on the U.S.-China trade front has provided support for semiconductor stocks, and the technology sector has led the way in the 1st quarter, up nearly 20%. The yield curve did briefly invert, with 10-year U.S. Treasury rates falling below the yield on the 3-month Treasury, which historically presaged economic weakness. The inversion only lasted a few days and has since resolved, but will be something to keep an eye on going forward.