QUARTERLY MARKET COMMENTARY : Third Quarter 2018
Last quarter, we noted that a Google Trends search for the term “trade war” hit a value of 100 in early July, which denotes peak popularity according to the firm’s model, reflective of what was arguably investors’ top concern over the first half of 2018. But how did stocks respond as fears of an impending trade war reached their peak? By rallying nearly 8% over the ensuing three months, hitting a new all-time high in the process. So, despite a seemingly daily deluge of headlines warning of imminent economic peril, investors who stayed the course were well rewarded. Markets have a funny way of doing that. And while the final resolution of various trade negotiations around the world are uncertain, the global economy remains on solid footing and corporate earnings continue to impress.