QUARTERLY MARKET COMMENTARY : Fourth Quarter 2016
The best investment of the past year was not found in traditional financial markets – stocks, bonds, and the like – but rather in betting on English soccer, where a lucky few wagered on perennial laggard Leicester City to win the Premiere League title. The squad went on an improbable run, overcoming 5,000 to 1 odds to claim the championship. Here in the U.S., the Chicago Cubs won the World Series, ending a drought that had lasted over a century. Of course, gambling on sports is not recommended as part of an effective long-term investment strategy, but expecting that unexpected proved a salient theme in 2016. Over in the U.K., citizens voted to leave the European Union, despite what the majority of expert polling data would have led one to believe. Similarly, in the U.S., longshot Presidential candidate Donald Trump went on to win the election with Republicans gaining majorities in the House and Senate as well, defying most conventional prediction models.